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论文类型：会议论文

发表时间：2016-01-01

收录刊物：CPCI-S

关键字：Bayesian decision network; expert knowledge; emergency decision; emergency

摘要：(I)n order to solve the emergency decision management problem with uncertainty, an Emergency Bayesian decision network (EBDN) model is used in this paper. By computing the probability of each node, the EBDN can solve the uncertainty of different response measures. Using Gray system theory to determine the weight of all kinds of emergency losses. And then use genetic algorithm to search the best combination measure by comparing the value of output loss. For illustration, a typhoon example is utilized to show the feasibility of EBDN model. Empirical results show that the EBDN model can combine expert's knowledge and historic data to predict expected effects under different combinations of response measures, and then choose the best one. The proposed EBDN model can combine the decision process into a diagrammatic form, and thus the uncertainty of emergency events in solving emergency dynamic decision making is solved.