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论文类型： 期刊论文

发表时间： 2011-04-01

发表刊物： Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology (New Series)

收录刊物： EI、Scopus

卷号： 18

期号： 2

页面范围： 127-133

ISSN号： 10059113

摘要： An attempt of applying a novel genetic programming (GP) technique, a new member of evolution algorithms, has been made to predict the water storage of Wolonghu wetland response to the climate change in northeastern part of China with little data set. Fourteen years (1993-2006) of annual water storage and climatic data set of the wetland were taken for model training and testing. The results of simulations and predictions illustrated a good fit between calculated water storage and observed values (MAPE=9.47, r=0.99). By comparison, a multilayer perceptron (MLP) (a popular artificial neural network model) method and a grey model (GM) with the same data set were applied for performances estimation. It was found that GP technique had better performances than the other two methods both in the simulation step and predicting phase and the results were analyzed and discussed. The case study confirmed that GP method is a promising way for wetland managers to make a quick estimation of fluctuations of water storage in some wetlands under condition of little data set.