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Indexed by:期刊论文

Date of Publication:2009-02-01

Journal:WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT

Included Journals:SCIE、EI、Scopus

Volume:23

Issue:3

Page Number:493-507

ISSN No.:0920-4741

Key Words:Hydrological forecast; Rough set; Fuzzy inference; Multi-factor; Medium and long-term forecast

Abstract:This paper targets efforts to integrate rough set theory and the fuzzy inference technique into the multi-element medium and long-term hydrological forecast. Rough set theory is used to predigest the data and deal with the redundant inconsistent initial information table. Accordingly, the factors are reduced with the attribute significance concept. The minimal solution which is as fuzzy inference forecast pattern rule set in the model is achieved according to the principle of maximal attribute significance and combination significance as well as rules frequency. The model is applied to forecast annual runoff of Dahuofang Reservoir in China. The results indicate that the forecast precision is improved with rough set and the model can effectively reflect the non-linear relations between the runoff and factors and provide an effective and adaptable method to solve forecast problems related to complex factors selection and minimal inference rule set generation.