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发表时间：2012-01-01

发表刊物：系统工程

所属单位：经济管理学院

卷号：30

期号：7

页面范围：40-47

ISSN号：1001-4098

摘要：Emergencies can not only cause serious consequences,but also trigger
   secondary events.We cant get well prepared for the occurrence of the
   unexpected events,but can have early preventions of secondary disasters
   as long as we find the chain-reaction in advance.Based on the principle
   of disaster system,the occurrence mechanism of a single event as well as
   the relationship between chain-reaction of emergencies and
   disaster-pregnant environment is studied.Besides,disaster-pregnant
   environment for the four types of emergencies is provided.Then,we
   propose the chain-reaction mechanism of emergencies on the basis of the
   research of disaster-pregnant environment,and then build an emergency
   chain-reaction model.Finally,we verify the model by simulation
   examples.Results show that the model could be used to find the potential
   chain-reactions in the current region,providing decision support for
   chain-cutting disaster mitigation beforehand.

备注：新增回溯数据