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发表时间：2011-01-01

发表刊物：系统工程

所属单位：经济管理学院

卷号：29

期号：6

页面范围：1-7

ISSN号：1001-4098

摘要：The occurrence of an emergency often leads to secondary disasters.In
   addition to the common disaster chain,there are various chains of hidden
   dangers.This paper aims to identify some hidden disaster chain.First of
   all,starting from the point of view of co-occurrence,this paper
   identifies the collection of emergencies and selects about 20 years
   research literatures from China Journal full-text database between 1989
   and 2008.The paper analyses the frequency of emergency as theme,builds
   the co-occurrence matrix and calculates the rate of
   co-occurrence.Secondly,according to the rate of co-occurrence between
   emergencies,this paper creates the emergency network,analyses factors of
   the network and illustrates the applications of the emergency network
   model in the early-warning of secondary disasters.The paper tests the
   rationality of using the rate of co-occurrence to representing the
   possibility of the occurrence of disaster chain by comparing with 50
   disaster chains which have happened already

备注：新增回溯数据