Hits:

Indexed by:Journal Papers

Date of Publication:2015-06-01

Journal:JOURNAL OF CENTRAL SOUTH UNIVERSITY

Included Journals:SCIE、EI、Scopus

Volume:22

Issue:6

Page Number:2192-2200

ISSN No.:2095-2899

Key Words:grey relational degree; GM(1,1) model; Dempster/Shafer (D_S) method; least square method; thickness prediction

Abstract:To improve prediction accuracy of strip thickness in hot rolling, a kind of Dempster/Shafer(D_S) information reconstitution prediction method (DSIRPM) was presented. DSIRPM basically consisted of three steps to implement the prediction of strip thickness. Firstly, ibaAnalyzer was employed to analyze the periodicity of hot rolling and find three sensitive parameters to strip thickness, which were used to undertake polynomial curve fitting prediction based on least square respectively, and preliminary prediction results were obtained. Then, D_S evidence theory was used to reconstruct the prediction results under different parameters, in which basic probability assignment (BPA) was the key and the proposed contribution rate calculated using grey relational degree was regarded as BPA, which realizes BPA selection objectively. Finally, from this distribution, future strip thickness trend was inferred. Experimental results clearly show the improved prediction accuracy and stability compared with other prediction models, such as GM(1,1) and the weighted average prediction model.