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Indexed by:期刊论文

Date of Publication:2010-12-01

Journal:SCIENCE CHINA-TECHNOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Included Journals:SCIE、EI、Scopus

Volume:53

Issue:12

Page Number:3316-3323

ISSN No.:1674-7321

Key Words:inter-basin water transfer; GFS rainfall forecast; water distribution; risk assessment

Abstract:This paper develops a new inter-basin water transfer-supply and risk assessment model with consideration of rainfall forecast information. Firstly, based on the current state of reservoir and rainfall forecast information from the global forecast system (GFS), the actual diversion amount can be determined according to the inter-basin water transfer rules with the decision tree method; secondly, the reservoir supply operation system is used to distribute water resource of the inter-basin water transfer reservoir; finally, the integrated risk assessment model is built by selecting the reliability of water transfer, the reliability (water shortage risk), the resiliency and the vulnerability of water supply as risk analysis indexes. The case study shows that the inter-basin water transfer-supply model with rainfall forecast information considered can reduce the comprehensive risk and improve the utilization efficiency of water resource, as compared with conventional and optimal water distribution models.