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论文类型：期刊论文

发表时间：2010-12-01

发表刊物：SCIENCE CHINA-TECHNOLOGICAL SCIENCES

收录刊物：SCIE、EI、Scopus

卷号：53

期号：12

页面范围：3316-3323

ISSN号：1674-7321

关键字：inter-basin water transfer; GFS rainfall forecast; water distribution; risk assessment

摘要：This paper develops a new inter-basin water transfer-supply and risk assessment model with consideration of rainfall forecast information. Firstly, based on the current state of reservoir and rainfall forecast information from the global forecast system (GFS), the actual diversion amount can be determined according to the inter-basin water transfer rules with the decision tree method; secondly, the reservoir supply operation system is used to distribute water resource of the inter-basin water transfer reservoir; finally, the integrated risk assessment model is built by selecting the reliability of water transfer, the reliability (water shortage risk), the resiliency and the vulnerability of water supply as risk analysis indexes. The case study shows that the inter-basin water transfer-supply model with rainfall forecast information considered can reduce the comprehensive risk and improve the utilization efficiency of water resource, as compared with conventional and optimal water distribution models.