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论文类型：期刊论文

发表时间：2022-06-30

发表刊物：交通运输系统工程与信息

所属单位：建设工程学部

卷号：11

期号：3

页面范围：1-7

ISSN号：1009-6744

摘要：Induced traffic is a key part of travel demand analysis, which directly affects the urban transportation planning. The purpose of this paper is to address the question of how much new or improved road induces extra traffic. Based on the concept and mechanism of induced traffic, the factors that affect vehicle-miles of travel (VMT) are discussed. The elasticity-based model which is irk general use is applied in the calculation of our provinces and cities. In accordance with the data collection (from 1990 to 2008), induced traffic is analyzed. And then the elastic coefficient of our country and six districts (north China, east China, southwest China, south central China, northeast China, and northwest China) between VMT and lane-miles is estimated to be 0.16-0.51. Considering time delay, the elastic coefficient with one year lag and two year lag is about 0.22-0.54. The data analysis not only confirms the existence of induced traffic, but also provides substantive recommendations to urban transportation planning.

备注：新增回溯数据