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发表时间：2014-01-01

发表刊物：城市交通

期号：5

页面范围：72-77,71

ISSN号：1672-5328

摘要：Due to the limitation in precision and span of the statistical data, there often exists omitted variable bias and measurement error bias in induced traffic forecasting in China. Meanwhile, the correlation between variables may result in multicollinearity issues in calculation results. To contend with these problems, this paper investigates the relationship between roadway supply and traffic demand using a threestage least-square (3SLS) estimation of instrument variables. Based on the data from China Statistical Database, the paper establishes the simultaneous equations with three endogenous variables including vehicle travel distance, civil car ownership, and level of traffic congestion. The simultaneous equations are estimated with the 3SLS and the methods for solving short-term and long-term elasticity coefficients are also discussed. Results show that roadway construction leads to the increase of vehicle travel distances, hence cannot solve the problem of urban traffic congestion in China; instead, the development of public transportation can alleviate traffic congestion.

备注：新增回溯数据