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论文类型：期刊论文

发表时间：2014-06-01

发表刊物：ENERGY POLICY

收录刊物：SCIE、EI、SSCI、Scopus

卷号：69

页面范围：28-42

ISSN号：0301-4215

关键字：Multi-dimension dynamic programming; Strategic oil stockpile; China

摘要：There has been much attention paid to oil security in China in recent years. Although China has begun to establish its own strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) to prevent potential losses caused by oil supply interruptions, the system aiming to ensure China's oil security is still incomplete. This paper describes and provides evidence for the benefits of an auxiliary strategic oil policy choice, which aims to strengthen China's oil supply security and offer a solution for strategic oil operations with different holding costs. In this paper, we develop a multi-dimension stochastic dynamic programming model to analyze the oil stockpile delegation policy, which is an intermediate policy between public and private oil stockpiles and is appropriate for the Chinese immature private oil stockpile sector. The model examines the effects of the oil stockpile delegation policy in the context of several distinct situations, including normal world oil market conditions, slight oil supply interruption, and serious oil supply interruption. Operating strategies that respond to different oil supply situations for both the SPR and the delegated oil stockpile were obtained. Different time horizons, interruption times and holding costs of delegated oil stockpiles were examined. The construction process of China's SPR was also taken into account. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.