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论文类型：会议论文

发表时间：2011-12-14

收录刊物：EI、CPCI-S、Scopus

卷号：11

期号：PART B

页面范围：824-830

关键字：Energy consumption; Impact factors; Demand elasticity; China

摘要：Energy shortages have become the bottleneck restricting China's economic development increasingly, thus the study of factors affecting China's energy consumption is necessary for energy conservation. In this article, we analyze the impact factors of energy consumption in China firstly using a simplified cubic polynomial model, finding out important factors of them. Then, a three-variable demand model based on econometric theory and the translog production function is established. We find that urbanization, population, economy are the main factors affecting China's energy consumption. The demand elasticity of impact factors change regularly. The half-cycles of demand elasticity of urbanization and population on China's energy consumption are both about 6 to 8 years, while that of economy is around 14 years. The total value of China's energy consumption will increase irreversibly in the next decade. Thus, it's a formidable task for China's energy conversation in the short-term future. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and/or peer-review under responsibility of the Intelligent Information Technology Application Research Association.