Release Time:2019-03-11  Hits:

Indexed by: Journal Article

Date of Publication: 2017-11-02

Journal: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT

Included Journals: EI、SCIE、Scopus

Volume: 33

Issue: 6

Page Number: 987-1002

ISSN: 0790-0627

Key Words: Hydropower; precipitation forecasts; uncertainty; decision-making; risk evaluation

Abstract: This paper presents a new decision-making strategy for hydropower operations to handle uncertainty of forecasting precipitation. This strategy takes into account three basic components: uncertainty of precipitation, operation policies and a risk-evaluation model. In real-time operation, precipitations with different probabilities at different forecasting levels are obtained, and these precipitations are applied to forecast inflows using a hydrological forecasting model. Based on the forecasting inflows, the operation policies and risks with different probabilities are obtained. This study implements China's Huanren reservoir and medium-term precipitation forecasts from the Global Forecast System to study the efficiency and stability of this strategy.