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Indexed by:期刊论文

Date of Publication:2017-11-02

Journal:INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT

Included Journals:Scopus、SCIE、EI

Volume:33

Issue:6

Page Number:987-1002

ISSN No.:0790-0627

Key Words:Hydropower; precipitation forecasts; uncertainty; decision-making; risk evaluation

Abstract:This paper presents a new decision-making strategy for hydropower operations to handle uncertainty of forecasting precipitation. This strategy takes into account three basic components: uncertainty of precipitation, operation policies and a risk-evaluation model. In real-time operation, precipitations with different probabilities at different forecasting levels are obtained, and these precipitations are applied to forecast inflows using a hydrological forecasting model. Based on the forecasting inflows, the operation policies and risks with different probabilities are obtained. This study implements China's Huanren reservoir and medium-term precipitation forecasts from the Global Forecast System to study the efficiency and stability of this strategy.