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论文类型：会议论文

发表时间：2018-01-01

收录刊物：CPCI-SSH

页面范围：373-378

关键字：Exchange Rate Expectations; Bounded Rationality; Forecast Performance

摘要：Based on the international financial institution survey data of RMB exchange rate expectation released by Bloomberg, this paper tests the rationality and forecast performance of the RMB exchange rate expectation. The results show that the expectations are irrational and the statistical performance of expectations is not superior to the forecast resulting from the random walk model. However, the economic performance of the financial institution RMB exchange rate expectation is far exceeding the momentum strategy, which shows the bounded rationality of the expectation.