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论文类型：会议论文

发表时间：2013-01-01

收录刊物：CPCI-S

页面范围：1244-1253

关键字：Gravity dam; Dam foundation; Fuzzy probabilistic risk; alpha-level-cut method; Membership function

摘要：Based on the randomness and fuzziness of design parameters influencing dam foundation stability against sliding and the fuzziness of instability criterion, a solving method of the mathematical model for fuzzy risk analysis of gravity dam foundation instability is studied. On the basis of the safety factors, fuzzy-random limit state equation is established. Furthermore, alpha-level-cut method is used in the fuzzy processing of design parameters in the model, and alpha-level-cut method and lower semi-trapezoid membership function are both used to fuzzily process the instability criterion. By analysis on an engineering example, concerning the results of fuzzy risk interval values, the method provided in this paper is proved reasonable, convenient and effective. As well, dam safety assessment conclusion by fuzzy risk analysis is corresponding with that by the deterministic approach in current Design Code.