点击次数：

论文类型：期刊论文

发表时间：2014-01-01

发表刊物：Computer Modelling and New Technologies

收录刊物：EI

卷号：18

期号：10

页面范围：35-39

ISSN号：14075806

摘要：Quantitative research on the diffusion of Home Appliances to the Rural Areas in China is a very important topic both in theory and in application. Most of the research on diffusion focuses on the discussion and qualitative analysis of the policy. This paper expands the Bass model applications by leading an empirical research based on the history sales data of Home Appliances to the Rural Areas. The model has been estimated by both linear and nonlinear least squares method and Bayesian method separately, and predicts the maximum potential market in the end. This empirical research shows that Bayesian method performs best in predicting the diffusion of Home Appliances to the Rural Areas. Finally, the main factors influencing the policy implementation was analysed. It predicts the periodical sales and gives some suggestions to the government and enterprises accordingly.