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Indexed by:期刊论文

Date of Publication:2022-06-29

Journal:电力系统自动化

Affiliation of Author(s):电子信息与电气工程学部

Volume:42

Issue:21

Page Number:90-95,184

ISSN No.:1000-1026

Abstract:The randomness and fluctuation of wind power bring challenges to the integration of wind power to the power grid. The error range estimation of predicted power for wind farms can provide important information for the operation and the scheduling of power system with wind power. So, an interval rolling estimation method for daily wind power forecast errors is proposed, which is based on hidden Markov model. The hidden Markov model can be built to achieve fast estimation of wind power error fluctuation range under the certain confidence level, and the local weighted regression smoothing method is used to deal with the error interval. Based on the actual data, the simulation results show that this method can give the fluctuation range of the wind power prediction error and provide more comprehensive information for the power system scheduling and control, the allocation of backup capacity, the risk assessment and so on. © 2018 Automation of Electric Power Systems Press.

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