点击次数：

论文类型：期刊论文

发表时间：2022-06-29

发表刊物：电力系统自动化

所属单位：电子信息与电气工程学部

卷号：42

期号：21

页面范围：90-95,184

ISSN号：1000-1026

摘要：The randomness and fluctuation of wind power bring challenges to the integration of wind power to the power grid. The error range estimation of predicted power for wind farms can provide important information for the operation and the scheduling of power system with wind power. So, an interval rolling estimation method for daily wind power forecast errors is proposed, which is based on hidden Markov model. The hidden Markov model can be built to achieve fast estimation of wind power error fluctuation range under the certain confidence level, and the local weighted regression smoothing method is used to deal with the error interval. Based on the actual data, the simulation results show that this method can give the fluctuation range of the wind power prediction error and provide more comprehensive information for the power system scheduling and control, the allocation of backup capacity, the risk assessment and so on. © 2018 Automation of Electric Power Systems Press.

备注：新增回溯数据