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论文类型：会议论文

发表时间：2012-01-01

收录刊物：CPCI-S

页面范围：513-517

关键字：Real Estate; Investment Risk; Risk Measure; Multi-objective Decision; Rent Price Value at Risk

摘要：In order to measure the investment risk of the real estate market, this paper firstly analyzes the on the real estate business characteristics that is how the changeable income of the real estate business affects the performance and the investment risk. On this basis, the rental fluctuation of real estate market, the price fluctuation of the real estate market and the vacancy period are three key indictors to calculate the investment risk from investment process of real estate projects. These indictors are applied to correct the general concept of the rent price ratio; the corrected rent price ratio is a basic concept to definite "Rent Price Value at Risk", which is useful to measure the investment risk of the real estate market. Finally, the real estate market trend over the past decade has proved the effectiveness of the "Rent Price Value at Risk" by using the data of China Hong Kong. The paper also predicts real estate market trends in a future period.