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An Analytical Framework for Reservoir Operation With Combined Natural Inflow and Controlled Inflow

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Indexed by:期刊论文

Date of Publication:2021-01-10

Journal:WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH

Volume:56

Issue:8

ISSN No.:0043-1397

Key Words:reservoir operation; natural inflow; controlled inflow; forecast uncertainty; theoretical analysis

Abstract:Interbasin water transfers have been undertaken in those regions that water demand has gone beyond regional water availability. Some reservoirs in a recipient region have both natural inflow (NI) and the controlled inflow (CI) through water transfer. This study establishes a theoretical framework to analyze reservoir operation with combined NI and CI, via an optimization model to maximize the net benefit of reservoir operation, considering both deterministic and stochastic NI. Operation rules for both water transfer and reservoir release are derived from the framework. It is illustrated that the amount of CI depends on water availability to the recipient reservoir, the relationship between marginal benefit and marginal cost, the water transfer capacity, and the uncertainty level of NI. As forecast uncertainty increases, more water is transferred, and more water is left in the reservoir as carryover storage when the initial water availability (WA0) is small; however, with a certain high level of WA0 and forecast uncertainty, water transfer will be controlled to reduce the risk of water abandonment. Notably, the critical values of the forecast uncertainty that control water transfer are identified under the various WA0. The analysis is illustrated via a case study with a real-world reservoir in northeastern China. In summary, this study derives hedging rules for water supply reservoir with combined NI and CI to mitigate the risk of both water shortage and water abandonment and provides guidelines to use NI forecasts for water transfer and reservoir release decisions.
Plain Language Summary In this paper, we established a theoretical framework to derive hedging rules for reservoir operation with combined natural inflow (NI) and controlled inflow (CI) through interbasin water transfer. It extends the existing studies on hedging rules, which only considered NI. We particularly address the complexity of CI decisions under NI uncertainty-on the one hand, CI enhances water supply reliability of the recipient reservoir; on the other hand, it can increase the risk of water waste via reservoir spill when the likelihood of a full reservoir is increased. We also addressed the critical values of the forecast uncertainty that control water transfer under the various initial water availability levels. In summary, the theoretical analysis provides guidelines to combine NI and CI to mitigate the risk of both water shortage and water abandonment and provides guidelines to use NI forecasts for water transfer and reservoir release decisions.
Key Points
Hedging rules for reservoir operation with combined natural inflow and controlled inflow are derived We analyze the effect of forecast uncertainty and water transfer capacity on water transfer and reservoir release decisions We identify the uncertainty threshold of natural inflow that controls the decisions

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丁伟，副教授，博导，长期从事流域水资源管理研究，主持国家自然科学基金项目青年基金1项、面上项目1项，十三五国家重点研发计划子课题1项、十四五国家重点研发计划子课题1项，作为技术骨干参与了国家自然科学基金重点项目、国际合作重点项目等多项课题。

发表SCI/EI论文30余篇，其中水文水资源领域顶级期刊《Water Resources Research》4篇（均为1作/通讯）、ASCE百年旗舰期刊《Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management》 4篇（3篇为1作/通讯）；授权国家发明专利4项、国际发明专利1项，且有1项实现百万成果转化；出版专著2部；获2019年辽宁省科技进步一等奖、2016年教育部科技进步一等奖、2021年大坝工程学会科技进步奖一等奖1项。

代表性论文

[1] Wei Ding, Bing Yu, Yong Peng^*, Guang Han, Lin Zhang, The marginal utility principles for a two-stage hydropower operation problem. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 2022，DOI:10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001556

[2] Xingsheng Shu, Wei Ding^*, Yong Peng^*, Ziru Wang, Jian Wu, Min Li. Monthly Streamflow Forecasting Using Convolutional Neural Network. Water Resources Management, 2021, 35(15): 5089-5104, DOI: 10.1007/s11269-021-02961-w

[3] Yu Li, Wei Ding^*, Xiaoxian Chen, Ximing Cai, Chi Zhang. An analytical framework for reservoir operation with combined natural inflow and controlled inflow, Water Resources Research,2020,56(8),e2019WR025347, Doi: 10.1029/2019WR025347

[4]Wei Ding, Haixing Liu^*, Yu Li, Hua Shang, Chi Zhang, Guangtao Fu. Unraveling the effects of long-distance water transfer for ecological recharge, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management,2020,146(9):02520004, DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001272

[5] Bingyao Zhang, Wei Ding^*, Bo Xu, Longfan Wang, Yu Li, Chi Zhang. Spatial characteristics of total phosphorus loads from different sources in the Lancang River Basin, Science of The Total Environment,2020,722,137863, DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.137863

[6] Chi Zhang, Wei Ding^*, Yu Li, Fanlin Meng, Guangtao Fu. Cost-Benefit framework for optimal design of water transfer systems, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management,2019,145(5):04019007, DOI:10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0001059

[7] Qiang Wang, Wei Ding^*, Yan Wang. Optimization of multi-reservoir operating rules for a water supply system, Water Resources Management,2018,32(14):4543-4559, DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-2063-9

[8] Wei Ding, Chi Zhang ^*, Ximing Cai, Yu Li, Huicheng Zhou, Multiobjective hedging rules for flood water conservation, Water Resources Research, 2017,53(3):1963-1981, DOI: 10.1002/2016WR019452

[9] Chi Zhang, Wei Ding^*, Yu Li, Yin Tang, Dingbao Wang. Catchments' hedging strategy on evapotranspiration for climatic variability, Water Resources Research,2016,52(11):9036-9045, DOI：10.1002/2016WR019384

[10] Wei Ding, Chi Zhang^*, Yong Peng, Ruijie Zeng, Huicheng Zhou, Ximing Cai. An analytical framework for flood water conservation considering forecast uncertainty and acceptable risk, Water Resources Research,2015,51(6):4702-4726, DOI: 10.1002/2015WR017127

科研项目

[1] 国家重点研发计划课题，特大干旱条件下旱限（警）水位确定与抗旱应急智慧调度研究子课题：特大干旱下水利工程群应急调度技术研究，项目负责人

[2] 国家自然科学基金面上项目，基于知识学习的水库防洪智能调度研究，项目负责人

[3] 国家自然科学基金青年基金，水电站汛期防洪与发电协调控制理论与方法研究，项目负责人

[4] 国家重点研发计划，长江上游梯级水库群多目标联合调度技术子课题：面向两湖和长江口地区供水需求的水库群供水调度方案研究，项目负责人

[5] 水利前期项目，全国江河湖库旱限水位（流量）确定试点，技术负责人

[6] 吉林省农村基层项目，智慧水库洪水调度系统开发，技术负责人

[7] 国家自然基金重大国际合作研究项目，河库连通下的特大水库群联合调度基础问题研究，技术骨干

授权专利

[1] 魏国振，丁伟，梁国华，何斌，唐榕，王猛，马杏，周惠成，一种考虑预报误差降低水库洪水起调水位的预报调度方法,国内发明专利

[2] 丁伟，李昱，张弛，周惠成，一种基于成本-效益分析的跨流域引水工程规模确定方法，国内发明专利（实现百万成果转化）

出版专著

[1] 梁团豪，王晓妮，李昱，丁伟，松花江流域骨干水库联合调度，大连理工大学出版社，2019年

[2] 李清清，马超，吴江，丁伟，何小聪，适应多维度用水需求的水库群供水调度技术，中国水利水电出版社，2021年