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Date of Publication:2017-01-01

Journal:水利学报

Affiliation of Author(s):建设工程学部

Volume:48

Issue:11

Page Number:1348-1354,1362

ISSN No.:0559-9350

Abstract:With the increasing of service time,the seismic capacity of concrete dams decreases because of the deterioration of material.Therefore,it is necessary to assess the life-cycle seismic safety of dams.Based on the theory of probability density evolution,this paper proposes a probabilistic analysis method of life-cycle seismic performance of concrete dams.The relative displacement angle as the index of performance evaluation is introduced,while the randomness and time variability of material are considered.Firstly,the probability density evolution equation is established for the extreme value of the dynamic nonlinear response of the dam in its service life.Then,the initial condition is obtained by employing the theory of the equivalent extreme value event and the equation is solved by the difference method.Finally,the time-dependent dynamic reliability is acquired in the safety domain.The validity of the method is verified through a numerical example.The results show that the proposed method can obtain probability evolution information of seismic performance and the development of the dynamic reliability of dams in its service life.Compared with the Monte Carlo method,the new method shows higher accuracy and efficiency.

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