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发表时间：2007-01-01

发表刊物：大连理工大学学报

所属单位：建设工程学部

期号：2

页面范围：246-251

ISSN号：1000-8608

摘要：Hydrological combined forecasting is a method giving summary and analysis to different forecasting results, produced by different predication models. Aiming at the two situations-abundance or lack of history flood data, the combined forecasting models separately based on multi-objective fuzzy optimization theory and Bayesian analysis theory are proposed correspondingly. The former model introduces multi-objective fuzzy optimization theory to find out optimal relative membership degree of each projection on some precision at different discharges, and then by means of weighted average to confirm the optimal forecasting result; the latter model is based on Bayesian theory, combined with experts' experiences, MCMC simulation, Gibbs sampling and real-time auto-tuning technology. Taking the drainage area of Nenjiang for instance, the precision of the two integrated models was tested, and the result indicates that the established models are available and practical, with higher precision than that of any single model.

备注：新增回溯数据