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论文类型：期刊论文

发表时间：2017-11-02

发表刊物：INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT

收录刊物：Scopus、SCIE、EI

卷号：33

期号：6

页面范围：987-1002

ISSN号：0790-0627

关键字：Hydropower; precipitation forecasts; uncertainty; decision-making; risk evaluation

摘要：This paper presents a new decision-making strategy for hydropower operations to handle uncertainty of forecasting precipitation. This strategy takes into account three basic components: uncertainty of precipitation, operation policies and a risk-evaluation model. In real-time operation, precipitations with different probabilities at different forecasting levels are obtained, and these precipitations are applied to forecast inflows using a hydrological forecasting model. Based on the forecasting inflows, the operation policies and risks with different probabilities are obtained. This study implements China's Huanren reservoir and medium-term precipitation forecasts from the Global Forecast System to study the efficiency and stability of this strategy.