点击次数：

论文类型：期刊论文

发表时间：2017-01-01

发表刊物：SCIENCE CHINA-TECHNOLOGICAL SCIENCES

收录刊物：SCIE、EI、Scopus

卷号：60

期号：1

页面范围：153-165

ISSN号：1674-7321

关键字：variable sets (VS); flood control system; risk evaluation; evaluation indices; flood control risk distribution map

摘要：Flood control system risk evaluation is an effective measure for flood risk management and decisions. In order to make better flood risk decisions and thereby improve social and economic benefits, the flood control risk evaluation index system should be built to quantify and normalize flood risk effectively and efficiently. Because the current evaluation index has the binary miscibility characteristic of fuzziness and clarity, this paper establishes a new flood control system risk evaluation method based on the theory of variable sets (VS). Through a comparison of flood control risk evaluation with variable fuzzy sets (VFS) in the same basin flood control system risk evaluation, it is revealed that the new method, i.e., flood control risk evaluation with variable fuzzy/clear mixture sets (variable sets), will be reasonable in all cases. Finally, in one case study, i.e., the flood control system risk evaluation of Fengman Reservoir Basin, which is located in the southeast central of Jilin Province in China, the risk evaluation levels for each county in the basin as well as the whole flood risk distribution map of the basin could be provided with the new method. This provides useful information for basin flood control planning and design.