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论文类型：会议论文

发表时间：2008-01-01

收录刊物：CPCI-S

页面范围：325-328

关键字：traffic forecasting; combining forecasting; gray theory; regression forecasting

摘要：Traffic forecasting is an important problem of traffic planning and transportation management. Gray and regression model are widely used to forecasting traffic with different applicable conditions and effects. Generally, the Gray Model (GM) considers historical traffic, but hardly relative factors such as economics and population. And the complex relationship between traffic and its relative factors should be supposed before regression forecasting. Therefore in the paper, their combining forecasting models with weighted arithmetic average, weighted average square sum and weighted ratio average are proposed to avoid their individual limitation and to improve traffic forecast. Experiments show that the combining model is capable to improve the precision of prediction by selecting suitable combining styles and their coefficients.