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论文类型： 会议论文

发表时间： 2016-08-27

收录刊物： EI、CPCI-S、Scopus

页面范围： 72-77

关键字： population projections; family planning policy; simulation model; population structure

摘要： In the past two years, the constantly adjustment for family planning policy by Chinese government is bound to have a great impact on population scale, aging process of the Chinese society, education, labor force, employment and endowment. Adopting C++ language, this paper built a population predicting simulation model using time-lapse method to predict the population and the trend of some related variables under different family planning policies. The model simulated four situations, including polices of one-child, two-child for both one-child parents, selective two-child and universal two-child. Then, the change of size and structure of population as well as the impact on aging process of the Chinese society, education, labor force and employment under different family planning policies are analyzed. From the simulation results, releasing universal two-child policy in the present could keep an optimized population structure while such measures could no longer be valid if this policy is released after 2030 since the population structure would enter the aging status by then.