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发表时间：2013-01-01

发表刊物：电子科技大学学报 社科版

所属单位：经济管理学院

期号：1

页面范围：22-27

ISSN号：1008-8105

摘要：Scenario construction and deduction of unconventional emergencies is one of the key issues in the“Scenario-Response” type emergency management model. After analyzing the characteristics of emergency management and the extant related studies, we build a methodology of scenario construction and deduction for emergencies, which includes four parts:the extraction and representation methods of the key emergency elements and the mechanisms among the elements; scenario construction methods under multi-source information fusion, scenario deduction methods based on “Scenario-Response”, and the assessment methods of scenario deduction results and actual effects. The proposed system is beneficial to solve the key issues of “Scenario-Response”emergency management, which can promote the implementation of “Scenario-Response” methodology in emergency management practice and improve the decision support for governments’ responses to unconventional emergencies.

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