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论文类型：期刊论文

发表时间：2022-06-28

发表刊物：大连理工大学学报

所属单位：能源与动力学院

卷号：51

期号：4

页面范围：493-497

ISSN号：1000-8608

摘要：Based on the premise of the first-order cumulated generating series with
   the character of exponential growth,the background value of grey model
   is improved by the predictor-correcting technique to enhance the
   prediction precision of grey model.The numerical experimental results
   show that the precision and adaptability of the grey model are improved
   effectively.Finally,energy demand is predicted up to 2015 using the
   improved model coupling with the equal dimension rolling mechanism.The
   forecasting result indicates that energy demand will reach up to 3.19
   billion tons of coal equivalent(BTCE)in 2010 and 3.63 BTCE in
   2015,respectively,and it will present the huge challenge in terms of the
   safety of energy supply.

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