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发表时间：2018-01-01

发表刊物：系统工程学报

所属单位：经济管理学院

卷号：33

期号：1

页面范围：1-11,12

ISSN号：1000-5781

摘要：Scenarios are the foundation of unconventional emergency decision.To solve the problem of knowl-edge support of cross-disciplines and the dependency on experiential knowledge when modeling scenarios,the paper analyzes the scenario structure from the perspective of event,event attribute,and attribute relationships, and proposes a scenario representation model based on knowledge unit model.In view of the uncertainty char-acteristic of scenarios,the paper extends the uncertainty representation and uncertainty inference of knowledge unit model using the Bayesian network, and then builds a Bayesian network model for scenarios inference. The model solves the problem of uncertainty inference of unconventional emergency scenarios. Finally,the experiment of Zhouqu debris flow proves that the proposed model is consistent with the reality and that it can support the unconventional emergency decision scientifically and effectively.

备注：新增回溯数据