点击次数：

论文类型：期刊论文

发表时间：2011-01-24

发表刊物：ECOLOGICAL MODELLING

收录刊物：SCIE、EI

卷号：222

期号：2,SI

页面范围：307-312

ISSN号：0304-3800

关键字：Catastrophe theory; Near-shore coastal waters; Disaster evaluation; Index system

摘要：In this study, a model for assessing of environmental disasters in near-shore areas was developed using a multi-criteria evaluation method of catastrophe theory. The assessment model involved scenarios of eutrophication, pollution with heavy metals and organic compounds. An evaluation system of the model was composed of seven mesosphere indicators and twenty underlying indicators including water chemistry, water physics, water biology, heavy metals and organic pollutants in water and surface sediments. The model was applied to possibility assessment of environmental disasters in different functional regions of the Dalian Bay in 2001 and 2006. Results showed that the environmental disaster indicators in 2001 were equivalent to the Level 4 standard values of marine functional areas, but the eutrophication disaster indicators were lower than the Level 4 standard values. It is consistent with the occurrence of a large-scale red tide in Dalian Bay in 2001. In 2006, eutrophication remained the dominant problem of the region but organic pollutants, such as oil, were reduced remarkably. This coincided with ongoing local environmental-friendly practices for industries. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.