点击次数：

发表时间：2011-01-01

发表刊物：大连理工大学学报

所属单位：建设工程学部

期号：3

页面范围：412-416

ISSN号：1000-8608

摘要：Rationality testification of modeling assumptions of inference model and calculation of risk rate under incomplete conditions of dynamic control of the reservoir limit water level aren't solved. Take Baiguishan Reservoir that is in intake area of south-to-north water diversion as an example, Bayes theorem is applied to testifying that modeling assumptions of inference model of dynamic control of the reservoir limit water level is rational. And a new inference model which is established by risk rate under complete conditions is more logical and feasible than actual inference model. This result can not only ensure the safety of flood control, but also increase the utilization rate of the flood resource. Furthermore, it can provide references with promoting the use of the dynamic control of the reservoir limit water level method.

备注：新增回溯数据