点击次数：

论文类型：期刊论文

发表时间：2011-07-01

发表刊物：SCIENCE CHINA-TECHNOLOGICAL SCIENCES

收录刊物：SCIE、EI

卷号：54

期号：7

页面范围：1888-1893

ISSN号：1674-7321

关键字：flood forecast error; flood control forecast operation mode; dynamic control of flood limited water level; risk analysis; Dahuofang Reservoir

摘要：Flood control forecast operation mode is one of the main ways for determining the upper bound of dynamic control of flood limited water level during flood season. The floodwater utilization rate can be effectively increased by using flood forecast information and flood control forecast operation mode. In this paper, Dahuofang Reservoir is selected as a case study. At first, the distribution pattern and the bound of forecast error which is a key source of risk are analyzed. Then, based on the definition of flood risk, the risk of dynamic control of reservoir flood limited water level within different flood forecast error bounds is studied. The results show that, the dynamic control of reservoir flood limited water level with flood forecast information can increase the floodwater utilization rate without increasing flood control risk effectively and it is feasible in practice.