点击次数：

论文类型：期刊论文

发表时间：2009-02-01

发表刊物：WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT

收录刊物：SCIE、EI、Scopus

卷号：23

期号：3

页面范围：493-507

ISSN号：0920-4741

关键字：Hydrological forecast; Rough set; Fuzzy inference; Multi-factor; Medium and long-term forecast

摘要：This paper targets efforts to integrate rough set theory and the fuzzy inference technique into the multi-element medium and long-term hydrological forecast. Rough set theory is used to predigest the data and deal with the redundant inconsistent initial information table. Accordingly, the factors are reduced with the attribute significance concept. The minimal solution which is as fuzzy inference forecast pattern rule set in the model is achieved according to the principle of maximal attribute significance and combination significance as well as rules frequency. The model is applied to forecast annual runoff of Dahuofang Reservoir in China. The results indicate that the forecast precision is improved with rough set and the model can effectively reflect the non-linear relations between the runoff and factors and provide an effective and adaptable method to solve forecast problems related to complex factors selection and minimal inference rule set generation.