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Date of Publication:2011-01-01

Journal:大连理工大学学报

Affiliation of Author(s):建设工程学部

Issue:3

Page Number:412-416

ISSN No.:1000-8608

Abstract:Rationality testification of modeling assumptions of inference model and calculation of risk rate under incomplete conditions of dynamic control of the reservoir limit water level aren't solved. Take Baiguishan Reservoir that is in intake area of south-to-north water diversion as an example, Bayes theorem is applied to testifying that modeling assumptions of inference model of dynamic control of the reservoir limit water level is rational. And a new inference model which is established by risk rate under complete conditions is more logical and feasible than actual inference model. This result can not only ensure the safety of flood control, but also increase the utilization rate of the flood resource. Furthermore, it can provide references with promoting the use of the dynamic control of the reservoir limit water level method.

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