Title of Paper:Dynamic programming approach for segmentation of multivariate time series

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Date of Publication:2015-01-01

Journal:STOCHASTIC ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND RISK ASSESSMENT

Included Journals:SCIE、EI、Scopus

Volume:29

Issue:1

Page Number:265-273

ISSN No.:1436-3240

Key Words:Multivariate time series; Segmentation; Change point; Dynamic programming; Threshold autoregressive model

Abstract:In this paper, dynamic programming (DP) algorithm is applied to automatically segment multivariate time series. The definition and recursive formulation of segment errors of univariate time series are extended to multivariate time series, so that DP algorithm is computationally viable for multivariate time series. The order of autoregression and segmentation are simultaneously determined by Schwarz's Bayesian information criterion. The segmentation procedure is evaluated with artificially synthesized and hydrometeorological multivariate time series. Synthetic multivariate time series are generated by threshold autoregressive model, and in real-world multivariate time series experiment we propose that besides the regression by constant, autoregression should be taken into account. The experimental studies show that the proposed algorithm performs well.