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Date of Publication:2022-10-10

Journal:北京航空航天大学学报

Volume:45

Issue:6

Page Number:1153-1161

ISSN No.:1001-5965

Abstract:In view of several problems of electrical wiring interconnection system (EWIS), such as condition difference, ageing phenomenon and modelling difficulty, a UGF-GO methodology based EWIS degradation reliability analysis method is proposed by combining traditional GO methodology and universal generating function (UGF). In this paper, based on the difference of performance and environment of system components, using Wiener degradation process model with random parameters, the component reliability simulation model has been built. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is used to estimate parameters in the model. The simulation test show that MCMC algorithm improves the estimation accuracy compared to the parameter estimation values of traditional two-step method. In analyzing the reliability of a degenerate system, the UGF-GO methodology works for calculating the EWIS reliability. Finally, the EWIS of an aircraft is taken as an example, and combined with the reliability calculation result of components, the reliability level of EWIS is evaluated under different thresholds. The results show that UGF-GO methodology can effectively solve the reliability analysis problem of the deteriorating system. ? 2019, Editorial Board of JBUAA. All right reserved.

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