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论文类型：期刊论文

发表时间：2018-10-01

发表刊物：NATURAL HAZARDS

收录刊物：SCIE、SSCI

卷号：94

期号：1

页面范围：1-18

ISSN号：0921-030X

关键字：Real options; Flood risk; Climate change; Adaptation measures; NPV; SuDS

摘要：Developing an adaptation option is challenging for long-term engineering decisions due to uncertain future climatic conditions; this is especially true for urban flood risk management. This study develops a real options approach to assess adaptation options in urban surface water flood risk management under climate change. This approach is demonstrated using a case study of Waterloo in London, UK, in which three Sustainable Drainage System (SuDS) measures for surface water flood management, i.e., green roof, bio-retention and permeable pavement, are assessed. A trinomial tree model is used to represent the change in rainfall intensity over future horizons (2050s and 2080s) with the climate change data from UK Climate Projections 2009. A two-dimensional Cellular Automata-based model CADDIES is used to simulate surface water flooding. The results from the case study indicate that the real options approach is more cost-effective than the fixed adaptation approach. The benefit of real options adaptations is found to be higher with an increasing cost of SuDS measures compared to fixed adaptation. This study provides new evidence on the benefits of real options analysis in urban surface water flood risk management given the uncertainty associated with climate change.