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论文类型：会议论文

发表时间：2000-01-01

收录刊物：CPCI-S

卷号：2

页面范围：99-103

摘要：Fault tree analysis is a logical and diagrammatic method to evaluate the probability of an accident resulting from sequences and combinations of faults and failure events. In conventional fault tree analysis, probabilities and consequences are treated as exact values. In many engineering applications, however, it is difficult to evaluate the probabilities and consequences from past experiences, because of dynamic environments of systems, and especially because there are situations where past experience does not exist. Therefore, the possibility of failure, i.e., a fuzzy. set defined in probability space, is proposed. The maximum possibility within the system failure is determined from the possibility of failure of each component within the system according to the extension principle. The concept of fuzzy importance is proposed as a correspondence to probability-based importance. The method proposed herein is illustrated through a gear train.