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论文类型：期刊论文

发表时间：2022-06-29

发表刊物：系统工程学报

所属单位：经济管理学院

期号：6

页面范围：729-738

ISSN号：1000-5781

摘要：In view of the lack of interdisciplinary knowledge support and microscopic analysis in scene ex-pression of unconventional emergencies, this paper proposes a scenario representation model based on the knowledge unit model and the micro-analysis of scenarios factors and their interactions. In view of the uncer-tainty of information in scenarios inference, a fuzzy inference method is introduced. This method constructs the fuzzy rules on the basis of the interaction between knowledge units, matches the uncertainty information with the fuzzy rules, and then estimates the results and probability of scenarios inference which can provide the basis for decision making. Finally, the Zhouqu debris flow event is given as an example to testify the feasibility and practicability of the proposed method.

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