程春田

个人信息Personal Information

教授

博士生导师

硕士生导师

性别:男

毕业院校:大连理工大学

学位:博士

所在单位:水利工程系

学科:水文学及水资源. 水利水电工程. 电力系统及其自动化. 计算机应用技术

联系方式:ctcheng@dlut.edu.cn

电子邮箱:ctcheng@dlut.edu.cn

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Applying a Correlation Analysis Method to Long-Term Forecasting of Power Production at Small Hydropower Plants

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论文类型:期刊论文

发表时间:2015-09-01

发表刊物:WATER

收录刊物:SCIE、EI、Scopus

卷号:7

期号:9

页面范围:4806-4820

ISSN号:2073-4441

关键字:SHP; power production; prediction; correlation analysis

摘要:Forecasting long-term power production of small hydropower (SHP) plants is of great significance for coordinating with large-medium hydropower (LHP) plants. Accurate forecasting can solve the problems of waste-water and abandoned electricity and ensure the safe operation of the power system. However, it faces a series of challenges, such as lack of sufficient data, uncertainty of power generation, no regularity of a single station and poor forecasting models. It is difficult to establish a forecasting model based on classical and mature prediction models. Therefore, this paper introduces a correlation analysis method for forecasting power production of SHP plants. By analyzing the correlation between SHP and LHP plants, a safe conclusion can be drawn that the power production of SHP plants show similar interval inflow to LHP plants in the same region. So a regression model is developed to forecast power production of SHP plants by using the forecasting inflow values of LHP plants. Taking the SHP plants in Yunnan province as an example, the correlation between SHP and LHP plants in a district or county are analyzed respectively. The results show that this correlation method is feasible. The proposed forecasting method has been successfully applied to forecast long-term power production of SHP plants in the 13 districts of the Yunnan Power Grid. From the results, the rationality, accuracy and generality of this method have been verified.