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论文类型：期刊论文

论文编号：10.3390/en9100804

发表时间：2016-10-08

发表刊物：Energies

收录刊物：SCI、EI

所属单位：Dalian University of Technology

学科门类：工学

一级学科：水利工程

卷号：10

期号：2016年9期

ISSN号：1996-1073

关键字：market clearing price; mid-term; grey prediction model; sparse data; particle swarm optimization

教研室：Institute of Hydropower System & Hydroinformatics

摘要：For the power systems, for which few data are available for mid-term electricity market clearing price (MCP) forecasting at the early stage of market reform, a novel grey prediction model (defined as interval GM(0, N) model) is proposed in this paper. Over the traditional GM(0, N) model, three major improvements of the proposed model are: (i) the lower and upper bounds are firstly identified to give an interval estimation of the forecasting value; (ii) a novel whitenization method is then established to determine the definite forecasting value from the forecasting interval;